我對A1中大碩士生的感想

對這個星期一的熱門話題,雖然最近很忙,也忍不住寫吓感受...抽吓水.

首先,星期一通常為最冇新聞的一天. 報紙一向都喜愛用一些民調或地區性調查去做星期一或長假期後的A1, 用些軟性的新聞去充場面. 但它們大都如陶傑光明頂話齋: "現在報紙只提供一些給讀者即時快感的閱讀, 等一眾讀者可拍抬大罵, 缺乏更深層次的探討".蘋果星期一的A1相信也是如此.

八字論股 開倉大吉

有云以飛鏢或馬騮選股能戰勝大行分析員, 現在也以五行旺弱來開個兔年旺木倉.看看來年表現如何, 也連帶一系列指標及觀察股票.  本倉會不定時update大家.

美股因埃及動亂升級, 可能引致供油不穩為由, 上星期五大跌, 看來港股星期一也不會太好, 不過仍依計劃於廿九日開倉.  於半年前推測大市以小跌市完結虎年看來也偏差不大, 希望今年也開口中吧!

Hong Kong Stamp - Year of Rabbit 兔年生肖郵票

兔年生肖郵票為本系列最後一枚, 一向都有收集郵票的我也買了一套...

在沒有互聯網的年代, 郵票是我認識世界的窗口、歷史、名人、地理、運動、節日等等.  現在只要在電腦上一click便知道，但有時打開小時候的郵票簿，和朋友仔交換郵票的情境仍歴歴在目...

這是數碼化世代沒法享受的情感。

現在巳經沒有 Pen Friends, 只有 facebook... 

APPLE 2011 Q1 Results and look forward

Apple Reports First Quarter Results

Record Mac, iPhone, iPad Sales Drive Highest Revenue and Earnings Ever
Revenue Grows 71 Percent; Earnings Grow 78 Percent

CUPERTINO, California—January 18, 2011—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2011 first quarter ended December 25, 2010. The Company posted record revenue of $26.74 billion and record net quarterly profit of $6 billion, or $6.43 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $15.68 billion and net quarterly profit of $3.38 billion, or $3.67 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 38.5 percent compared to 40.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 62 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

Apple sold 4.13 million Macs during the quarter, a 23 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 16.24 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 86 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 19.45 million iPods during the quarter, representing a seven percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company also sold 7.33 million iPads during the quarter.

“We had a phenomenal holiday quarter with record Mac, iPhone and iPad sales,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “We are firing on all cylinders and we’ve got some exciting things in the pipeline for this year including iPhone 4 on Verizon which customers can’t wait to get their hands on.”

“We couldn’t be happier with the performance of our business, generating $9.8 billion in cash flow from operations during the December quarter,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter of 2011, we expect revenue of about $22 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share of about $4.90.” .............

AAPL業績好過市場上最任何樂觀的估計, iPad在Q1 賣了七百萬件, iPhone左Q1也賣了一千六百萬件. 所以早前台灣傳出APPLE對Q2訂了可做二千一百萬台iPhone的零件也假不了太多.

 

毛利回升, 美國國外銷售强勁上升, 中港台銷售比上年升四倍, 現佔APPL總銷售10%. iPad, iPhone仍然供不應求, 以PE得20來說跟本不貴, 2011 Q2,3也不用愁. 絕招iphone5 and ipad2 可於年中及年尾宣佈, 令APPLE生命延續到2012. 至於之後如何...就天知了.

 

但蘋果股價可能會受Jobs"請假"困擾, 直致Tim Cook prove himself in Q2.  手上的AAPL(及昨天開市買入的)都會hold多排,  仍然保持2012 Q1左右@ USD$450的看法. 反而我其他AAPL Suppliers 的股票可能會部份獲利, 因為好多在過去三個月內已經有40-50%升幅, 因有其他業務, 有些suppliers本身質素也一般.

溫馨提示: 蘋果Q1業績

蘋果AAPL 2011 Q1 (Oct -Dec) 業績將於一月十八日發放. Q1一向是蘋果最強勁的季度, 炒業績人仕要留意上次業績前一個月內, AAPL上昇了約20+%. 其公司也愛於年頭介紹新產品及路向, 刺激通常較平淡的Q2, 也令其股價常於二至四月有較大升幅. 如果AAPL Q1有強勁業績, 相信也會帶動其相關 suppliers 股票.

上次談AAPL時 (冬天的蘋果, 切開冬天的蘋果) 股價如下,

AAPL 十月高位為 US$318  昨天 US$342 三個月上升 7.5%

SNDK  十月高位為 US$40.77  昨天 US$53.24  三個月上升 30.6%

十月以來APPL同NASDAQ(QQQQ)大致同步,反而一眾APPLE suppliers (SNDK, CRUS, BRCM) 大飛升!

能否持續要看蘋果產品在2011的表現!

[註:本人持有AAPL及SNDK股票]